Study of the climate vulnerability of the hydroelectric sector

The Challenge

Ivory Coast has been identified by the World Bank as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, with increasing risks to both flood safety and energy security. The Bandama and Sassandra river basins—home to the majority of the country’s hydroelectric production—are particularly exposed. The challenge was to assess the short- and long-term risks to these critical water systems, taking into account climate change projections, socio-economic development, and the operational needs of six major hydraulic assets.

The Solution

Tractebel conducted a comprehensive study combining historical data analysis, climate projection downscaling, and hydrological modeling. The team developed real-time hydrological and system models to support flood forecasting and conducted vulnerability and resilience assessments for both energy production and flood safety. Two climate change scenarios and two future time horizons were considered. The project also delivered an integrated decision-support tool and included capacity-building sessions to train operational teams in Ivory Coast, enabling them to conduct both short-term forecasting and long-term planning independently.

The Impact

The study provided a clear understanding of how each hydraulic asset may be affected under different climate and development scenarios. It identified the most vulnerable regions and uses, and proposed adaptation pathways to support robust decision-making despite the deep uncertainties of climate change. By equipping local stakeholders with tools and knowledge, Tractebel has helped strengthen national resilience, safeguard energy production, and enhance flood risk management in one of West Africa’s most climate-sensitive regions.